Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent beneficiary obvious regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even entering the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty useless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little more frequently than not. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for instance, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a prospect other than Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you brought up that survey, because I believed that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, naturally, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s specifically real because Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.