Berkeley Pro Trump Rally

Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.

If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent beneficiary apparent regardless of his age.

I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

Which’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It mostly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat usually. I do believe, however, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to identifying whether he runs once again., however he’s still underwater general.

Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he doesn’t run? Yes! The reality that no one quickly comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.

Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of beating Trump needs to the former president indeed run.

We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty easily win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.

You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and might not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.

I’m happy you raised that survey, due to the fact that I believed that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.

There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.

According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her money.

The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.

I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.