Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious beneficiary apparent regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) However I’m unsure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, signed up citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It mostly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little most of the time. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to determining whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea total.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? Yes! The fact that no one easily comes to mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears efficient in defeating Trump must the former president indeed run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump quite conveniently win the nomination with only a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect other than Trump in a main race.
I’m thankful you brought up that poll, because I believed that was an intriguing way to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much problem. That said, De, Santis is plainly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s especially real given that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually believe it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.