Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply hesitant that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor obvious despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even entering into the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead slightly usually. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to figuring out whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump should the former president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump quite conveniently win the nomination with just a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and might not be able to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m happy you brought up that survey, since I thought that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.