Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his 2nd term; it’s just truly tough to envision him serving at that age. Because project decisions don’t constantly happen in an organized style, it’ll be interesting to see how long Biden waits prior to he makes a last decision about his 2024 intentions.
But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent beneficiary obvious despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little usually. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to determining whether he runs again. Not to discuss that till really recently Biden also had the most affordable approval score of any president because the end of The second world war. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still undersea overall.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump must the former president certainly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty easily win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican primary would select a candidate aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you raised that poll, due to the fact that I believed that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really believe it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.