Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running once again. I guess I’m just hesitant that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead somewhat typically. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anyone other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to determining whether he runs again. Not to discuss that up until extremely recently Biden also had the least expensive approval ranking of any president because the end of World War II. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and might not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you raised that survey, because I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the outcomes, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.