Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious heir apparent despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead a little typically. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, naturally, he doesn’t run? Yes! The reality that nobody quickly enters your mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m glad you raised that poll, because I believed that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders gave her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.