Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running once again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor apparent regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m uncertain how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, signed up voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat typically. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to determining whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea overall.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The fact that nobody quickly comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump needs to the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not be able to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m grateful you brought up that survey, due to the fact that I thought that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders offered her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually believe it’ll be actually difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.