Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an apparent beneficiary evident despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It mainly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat typically. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to determining whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m happy you brought up that poll, since I thought that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct match. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be actually tough for another Republican to cut through his power.