Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious heir apparent despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even getting into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are quite useless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little generally. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater total.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, obviously, he doesn’t run? Yes! The fact that nobody quickly enters your mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems efficient in defeating Trump ought to the previous president certainly run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you raised that survey, because I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct match. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some want to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.