Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious heir apparent regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, registered voters picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even getting into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead slightly more typically than not. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to determining whether he runs once again., but he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the nomination with only a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m pleased you brought up that poll, because I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders provided her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s especially real because Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some want to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact believe it’ll be actually difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.