Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his 2nd term; it’s just really tough to picture him serving at that age. Since campaign choices do not always occur in an organized style, it’ll be fascinating to see for how long Biden waits before he makes a final determination about his 2024 objectives.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I guess I’m just hesitant that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent heir evident despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even getting into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are quite useless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead somewhat most of the time. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anyone other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to determining whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump must the previous president undoubtedly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty easily win the election with only a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m glad you brought up that poll, because I believed that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up citizens in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s particularly real because Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.