Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious beneficiary evident in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It mostly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do think, though, some Democrats think anybody aside from Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to identifying whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump needs to the previous president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty easily win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a variety of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m pleased you brought up that survey, because I believed that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s specifically true since Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some would like to confess, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.