Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply hesitant that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious beneficiary evident despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m uncertain how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. However they also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat usually. I do think, however, some Democrats think anyone aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to figuring out whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, naturally, he doesn’t run? Yes! The fact that nobody quickly comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump must the previous president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump quite easily win the election with only a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of candidates dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a prospect other than Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you brought up that poll, because I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct match. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to admit, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be actually tough for another Republican to cut through his power.