Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent successor obvious in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered citizens picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite meaningless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat more often than not. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea general.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in arrangement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump should the former president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the nomination with just a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and might not have the ability to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m thankful you brought up that survey, because I thought that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up citizens in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect. That’s especially true since Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some want to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.