Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just hesitant that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious heir evident despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty useless. It mainly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead a little typically. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
The majority of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats between the two surveys. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to determining whether he runs once again. Not to discuss that up until extremely recently Biden also had the lowest approval rating of any president given that the end of World War II. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The truth that no one easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the former president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for instance, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m glad you raised that survey, because I believed that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one could likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much difficulty. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect. That’s particularly true considering that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some wish to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be actually tough for another Republican to cut through his power.