Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his second term; it’s just really hard to envision him serving at that age. Since campaign choices don’t constantly take place in an orderly fashion, it’ll be interesting to see the length of time Biden waits before he makes a last decision about his 2024 intentions.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir obvious regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty useless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat generally. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to determining whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears efficient in beating Trump should the previous president undoubtedly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump quite handily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m happy you brought up that survey, due to the fact that I believed that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a real run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, naturally, went on to win the primary without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s particularly real since Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.