Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply hesitant that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious successor apparent in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even getting into the reality that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty useless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly typically. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anybody other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to identifying whether he runs once again. Not to discuss that till really recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval score of any president since completion of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, but he’s still undersea total.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump should the former president indeed run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty handily win the nomination with just a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you brought up that survey, since I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much problem. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s especially real given that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to confess, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really believe it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.