Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would surrender without an apparent heir evident despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly usually. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone other than Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decrease among Democrats in between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the exact same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to identifying whether he runs once again. Not to discuss that up until very recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval ranking of any president considering that the end of World War II. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still undersea general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in arrangement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump must the previous president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty conveniently win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a candidate aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m thankful you raised that survey, because I thought that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be actually difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.