Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent heir evident regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered voters selected Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It mostly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead slightly usually. I do believe, however, some Democrats think anyone other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats between the 2 surveys. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to determining whether he runs once again., however he’s still underwater total.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? Yes! The fact that nobody easily enters your mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump needs to the previous president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the nomination with only a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m happy you brought up that poll, since I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is plainly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s particularly real considering that Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually believe it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.