Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious successor apparent in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) However I’m not sure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat typically. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decrease amongst Democrats in between the two surveys. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he doesn’t run? Yes! The fact that nobody easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the previous president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m grateful you brought up that poll, due to the fact that I believed that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders gave her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually believe it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.