Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he will not run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m just hesitant that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent successor evident despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, signed up voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. However they also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even entering into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat typically. I do think, however, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to figuring out whether he runs once again., however he’s still underwater overall.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The fact that no one quickly comes to mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump must the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for circumstances, that practically half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you brought up that poll, since I believed that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one could likewise argue from that survey that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s specifically true given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.