Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious beneficiary obvious despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, registered citizens picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite meaningless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little typically. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to identifying whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump ought to the former president indeed run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty easily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you brought up that survey, because I thought that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one could likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a real run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s particularly true because Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some want to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact believe it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.