Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running once again. I guess I’m just skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious successor evident in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite useless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs once again. Not to mention that till very recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval ranking of any president because the end of World War II. It’s slowly inched back up, however he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in arrangement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president certainly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump quite handily win the nomination with only a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m thankful you brought up that survey, because I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her cash.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.