Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent beneficiary apparent in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It mainly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little more typically than not. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump needs to the former president undoubtedly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty easily win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m thankful you raised that poll, because I believed that was an intriguing way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the primary without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s specifically real since Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some want to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.