Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply hesitant that Biden would surrender without an obvious successor evident in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, registered citizens picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even entering the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are quite useless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little more often than not. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decrease amongst Democrats in between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the exact same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea total.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump must the previous president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty easily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a variety of prospects dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and may not be able to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you brought up that poll, because I believed that was a fascinating way to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.