Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor obvious despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, registered voters picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It mainly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat generally. I do think, however, some Democrats think anyone other than Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to identifying whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater overall.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump ought to the former president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you raised that survey, because I thought that was an interesting way to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be actually tough for another Republican to cut through his power.