Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply doubtful that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even getting into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty useless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead slightly generally. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody other than Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to figuring out whether he runs once again. Not to discuss that until extremely recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval ranking of any president because the end of The second world war. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? Yes! The truth that nobody easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump needs to the previous president undoubtedly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump quite easily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for instance, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you brought up that poll, because I thought that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one could likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders provided her a real run for her cash.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, obviously, went on to win the main without much problem. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s specifically true because Trump has universal name acknowledgment, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.