Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his second term; it’s simply actually difficult to envision him serving at that age. Since campaign decisions do not constantly take place in an orderly fashion, it’ll be interesting to see the length of time Biden waits before he makes a last decision about his 2024 intentions.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious heir apparent in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even entering the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat more typically than not. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to figuring out whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? Yes! The reality that nobody quickly comes to mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of defeating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you raised that poll, since I thought that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s especially real because Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some wish to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact believe it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.