Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious successor apparent regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not exactly sure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty useless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat most of the time. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump ought to the former president undoubtedly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty smoothly win the nomination with just a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m thankful you brought up that poll, because I thought that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders provided her a genuine run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.