Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent heir evident in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m unsure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, registered citizens picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It mainly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline amongst Democrats in between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea total.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? Yes! The fact that nobody easily enters your mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump ought to the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican primary would select a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you brought up that poll, because I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some want to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact believe it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.