Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious successor obvious regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even getting into the truth that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat most of the time. I do believe, however, some Democrats think anybody besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump must the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate besides Trump in a main race.
I’m thankful you raised that poll, because I believed that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is plainly a genuine risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be truly tough for another Republican to cut through his power.