Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would surrender without an obvious successor evident in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m unsure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, registered citizens picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It largely depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead slightly generally. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone other than Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decrease among Democrats in between the 2 surveys. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the very same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to identifying whether he runs again. Not to discuss that till very just recently Biden likewise had the most affordable approval rating of any president given that the end of World War II. It’s slowly inched back up, however he’s still undersea general.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The fact that no one easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump must the former president certainly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty smoothly win the election with only a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you raised that poll, since I thought that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some would like to confess, but after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really think it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.