Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to reveal or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious beneficiary evident despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It mostly depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead slightly generally. I do believe, however, some Democrats think anyone besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs once again., however he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in arrangement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president indeed run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a variety of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m delighted you raised that poll, because I believed that was a fascinating method to frame the outcomes, as one could likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct match. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.