Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to drift the idea he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent successor apparent despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m unsure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the beginning of the month, registered citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly more frequently than not. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to identifying whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater general.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in contract that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump needs to the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would choose a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.
I’m thankful you raised that survey, since I thought that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.