Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his second term; it’s just truly tough to imagine him serving at that age. Since campaign decisions do not always occur in an organized fashion, it’ll be intriguing to see for how long Biden waits before he makes a last decision about his 2024 intentions.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious heir apparent regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they likewise picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s prior to even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty useless. It mostly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead slightly more typically than not. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs again. Not to discuss that till extremely recently Biden likewise had the lowest approval rating of any president given that the end of World War II. It’s slowly inched back up, but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The reality that no one easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of beating Trump ought to the previous president undoubtedly run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect aside from Trump in a main race.
I’m grateful you brought up that survey, since I thought that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually believe it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.