Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be shocked, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running once again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent beneficiary apparent in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, signed up citizens chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. However they also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite useless. It mostly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little most of the time. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden might be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears efficient in defeating Trump needs to the previous president indeed run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump quite smoothly win the election with just a plurality of the main vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect other than Trump in a main race.
I’m delighted you raised that survey, because I believed that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered voters in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders offered her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much problem. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s especially true given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact believe it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.