Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to reveal or were even to drift the concept he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an obvious beneficiary evident regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are pretty worthless. It mainly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead a little usually. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody aside from Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to figuring out whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump should the former president certainly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty handily win the nomination with only a plurality of the primary vote. So if you get a number of candidates dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for circumstances, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you brought up that survey, because I thought that was an interesting way to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among signed up voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders provided her a genuine run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, naturally, went on to win the main without much trouble. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s especially real because Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact believe it’ll be really tough for another Republican to cut through his power.