Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m just hesitant that Biden would surrender without an obvious successor evident in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat generally. I do think, though, some Democrats think anyone other than Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump needs to the former president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that practically half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m delighted you raised that survey, due to the fact that I thought that was an interesting method to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered citizens in a direct match. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times might have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss paired with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.