Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running once again. I guess I’m simply doubtful that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent beneficiary obvious in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It largely depends on the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead a little most of the time. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they authorize of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be essential to identifying whether he runs once again. Not to point out that until really recently Biden likewise had the least expensive approval score of any president since completion of World War II. It’s gradually inched back up, but he’s still underwater total.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in contract that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump ought to the previous president undoubtedly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that practically half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m grateful you raised that survey, because I thought that was an interesting method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much problem. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not secure. That’s especially real considering that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis does not.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I in fact think it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.