Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making procedure if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m simply hesitant that Biden would surrender without an obvious beneficiary obvious in spite of his age.
I’m not sure how much the information backs that up. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
And that’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It mainly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead slightly more often than not. I do think, however, some Democrats think anybody aside from Biden may be weaker against Trump.
The majority of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decline amongst Democrats in between the 2 surveys. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the exact same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to figuring out whether he runs again., but he’s still underwater overall.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of defeating Trump must the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m pleased you brought up that survey, because I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the main without much trouble. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure. That’s especially real since Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some want to admit, however after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.