Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would surrender without an obvious beneficiary apparent regardless of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m unsure how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the beginning of the month, registered voters selected Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. However they also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead a little typically. I do think, though, some Democrats believe anyone other than Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be crucial to identifying whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea overall.
Is it reasonable to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the former president certainly run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that practically half of Americans who prepared to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m thankful you raised that survey, due to the fact that I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up citizens in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a genuine run for her cash.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate risk to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some would like to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really believe it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.