Trump My Pillow Rally

Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be amazed, though, if he declines to run for reelection.

If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just hesitant that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent heir apparent in spite of his age.

(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not sure just how much the information backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, registered citizens picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. But they likewise selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

And that’s prior to even getting into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are quite worthless. It largely depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead slightly usually. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anybody besides Biden might be weaker versus Trump.

Many of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to figuring out whether he runs once again., however he’s still undersea general.

Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.

Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump needs to the former president certainly run.

If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.

You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much luggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who prepared to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a prospect aside from Trump in a primary race.

I’m glad you brought up that survey, since I believed that was a fascinating method to frame the outcomes, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.

There is certainly more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be favored. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.

According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct match. Definitely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an intriguing comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a genuine run for her cash.

The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.

I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really think it’ll be actually tough for another Republican to cut through his power.