Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be shocked, though, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years of ages by the end of his second term; it’s simply really difficult to envision him serving at that age. Since project decisions don’t always occur in an organized fashion, it’ll be intriguing to see how long Biden waits before he makes a final determination about his 2024 objectives.
If Trump were to unexpectedly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is thinking about not running again. I guess I’m just skeptical that Biden would throw in the towel without an apparent beneficiary obvious in spite of his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) But I’m not sure just how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News poll from the start of the month, signed up voters picked Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is two years away and early general-election surveys are pretty useless. It mostly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anybody aside from Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be important to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea total.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. However, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) appears capable of defeating Trump must the previous president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much luggage and might not be able to win in a general election once again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for circumstances, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m glad you brought up that survey, because I thought that was a fascinating way to frame the outcomes, as one might likewise argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent registered voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating contrast to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I know we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to confess, however after Tuesday night’s results most notably Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss combined with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I in fact think it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.