Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be amazed, though, if he decreases to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the idea he won’t run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I guess I’m simply doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent heir apparent despite his age.
(After all, he beat Trump in 2020.) However I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. According to a You, Gov/Yahoo News survey from the start of the month, signed up voters chose Biden over Trump 45 percent to 42 percent. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even entering into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It mainly depends upon the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden might lead somewhat usually. I do think, however, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Many of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats in between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the very same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, naturally, he does not run? Yes! The reality that no one easily comes to mind informs me yes. Yes. OK, time to discuss the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all seem to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump ought to the previous president indeed run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty conveniently win the nomination with just a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of candidates dividing the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has too much baggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month discovered, for instance, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would choose a prospect other than Trump in a main race.
I’m grateful you raised that survey, due to the fact that I believed that was a fascinating method to frame the outcomes, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I discussed earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst registered voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was an interesting comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Naturally, Clinton ultimately won that race, however it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders provided her a real run for her money.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I understand we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss combined with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I actually believe it’ll be really difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.