Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be amazed, however, if he decreases to run for reelection.
However if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he won’t run that could make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would surrender without an apparent successor apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even getting into the truth that 2024 is two years away and early general-election polls are pretty meaningless. It mostly depends upon the pollster as to whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat typically. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anybody besides Biden may be weaker against Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to determining whether he runs once again., but he’s still underwater general.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, naturally, he doesn’t run? Yes! The fact that no one easily comes to mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of defeating Trump must the previous president undoubtedly run.
After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ usage of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump quite conveniently win the nomination with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s just going to make it easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and may not have the ability to win in a general election once again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that nearly half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican primary would pick a candidate other than Trump in a main race.
I’m thankful you brought up that survey, since I believed that was an intriguing method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that poll that Trump is still the undeniable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is certainly more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens said they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other prospects all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up citizens in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton ultimately won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders offered her a real run for her money.
The Times could have likewise compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine danger to Trump; a 9-point lead in the surveys is not protect.
I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump may be weaker than some wish to confess, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I really believe it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.