Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.
But if Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to float the concept he will not run that might complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an apparent successor apparent regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They likewise picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even getting into the fact that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election polls are quite meaningless. It mostly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead a little generally. I do think, though, some Democrats think anyone aside from Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
The majority of the discontent seems coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats between the two polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats said they approve of the task Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, though, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the exact same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to identifying whether he runs once again., however he’s still undersea total.
Is it fair to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic main aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, former Vice President Mike Pence, previous UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. But, of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the previous president certainly run.
We saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems assisted Trump pretty handily win the election with only a plurality of the main vote. So if you get a variety of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has excessive luggage and may not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate other than Trump in a primary race.
I’m glad you brought up that survey, because I thought that was an intriguing way to frame the results, as one could also argue from that poll that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in 2nd, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more room for an opposition to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a recent Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent authorized voters stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent said they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I discussed previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was an interesting contrast to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the beginning of the 2016 race.” Obviously, Clinton eventually won that race, however it wasn’t an assurance Sanders provided her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is plainly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I understand we had a chat in the past about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump might be weaker than some want to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s main loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the previous president I really believe it’ll be really hard for another Republican to cut through his power.