Yeah, Sarah, I would be surprised if a popular Democrat runs against Biden. I would not be surprised, however, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years of ages by the end of his second term; it’s just really tough to imagine him serving at that age. Since project decisions do not constantly take place in an organized fashion, it’ll be interesting to see for how long Biden waits before he makes a last determination about his 2024 intentions.
If Trump were to all of a sudden wait to announce or were even to float the concept he will not run that could complicate Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running again. I think I’m just skeptical that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious successor obvious regardless of his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They likewise chose Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s before even getting into the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty worthless. It largely depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden may lead somewhat usually. I do believe, though, some Democrats think anyone besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.
Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be crucial to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater total.
Is it reasonable to state that we’re all in agreement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, obviously, he does not run? Yes! The fact that no one quickly enters your mind tells me yes. Yes. OK, time to speak about the Republican side of things.
Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) appears capable of beating Trump ought to the previous president undoubtedly run.
If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it much easier for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely seems to be a minimum of some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive baggage and may not be able to win in a general election again. A New York City Times/Siena College survey from last month found, for instance, that almost half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican politician primary would select a candidate besides Trump in a primary race.
I’m happy you brought up that poll, due to the fact that I believed that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the indisputable leader. He was initially, with 49 percent assistance, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is definitely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult poll, 56 percent of Republican politician and independent authorized citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a bunch of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, however this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a guarantee Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.
The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. He, of course, went on to win the primary without much difficulty. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate hazard to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect. That’s particularly true given that Trump has universal name recognition, while De, Santis doesn’t.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I said that Trump might be weaker than some would like to confess, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually believe it’ll be truly difficult for another Republican to cut through his power.