Trump Rally Arizona Crowd

Yeah, Sarah, I would be amazed if a prominent Democrat runs against Biden. I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection.

But if Trump were to all of a sudden wait to reveal or were even to float the idea he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m simply doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious beneficiary apparent in spite of his age.

I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also selected Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.

And that’s before even entering the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are quite worthless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, but on balance, Biden may lead somewhat most of the time. I do believe, though, some Democrats believe anyone besides Biden may be weaker versus Trump.

Most of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own celebration, too. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president.

Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant could be essential to determining whether he runs again., however he’s still underwater general.

Is it fair to state that we’re all in arrangement that there is not space for anyone else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he doesn’t run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.

Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (presently) seems capable of defeating Trump must the former president undoubtedly run.

After all, we saw in 2016 that the Republican primaries’ use of winner-take-all or winner-take-most delegate systems helped Trump pretty handily win the election with just a plurality of the primary vote. If you get a number of prospects splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it easier for him to win.

You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there definitely appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the idea that he has excessive luggage and may not have the ability to win in a basic election again. A New York Times/Siena College poll from last month found, for example, that almost half of Americans who planned to enact the 2024 Republican politician primary would pick a prospect besides Trump in a main race.

I’m grateful you brought up that survey, since I believed that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one might also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis remained in 2nd, at 25 percent.

There is absolutely more room for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, but Trump would still be favored. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered voters said they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent stated they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.

According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News survey I pointed out earlier, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent amongst signed up voters in a direct matchup. Absolutely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the survey) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican main electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s amongst Democrats was at the outset of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t a warranty Sanders gave her a real run for her cash.

The Times could have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That said, De, Santis is clearly a legitimate threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not protect.

I know we had a chat back in the day about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some wish to admit, but after Tuesday night’s results most especially Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss coupled with the fates of the 9 other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually think it’ll be truly hard for another Republican to cut through his power.