Yeah, Sarah, I would be shocked if a prominent Democrat runs versus Biden. I would not be surprised, though, if he declines to run for reelection. He would be 86 years old by the end of his 2nd term; it’s simply truly difficult to picture him serving at that age. Because project decisions do not constantly happen in an organized fashion, it’ll be fascinating to see the length of time Biden waits before he makes a final determination about his 2024 intents.
If Trump were to suddenly wait to announce or were even to drift the idea he will not run that might make complex Biden’s decision-making process if he is considering not running once again. I think I’m just doubtful that Biden would toss in the towel without an obvious successor apparent despite his age.
I’m not sure how much the data backs that up. They also picked Harris over Trump 45 percent to 44 percent.
Which’s prior to even entering the reality that 2024 is 2 years away and early general-election surveys are pretty meaningless. It mainly depends on the pollster regarding whether Biden leads or Trump leads, however on balance, Biden might lead somewhat generally. I do believe, however, some Democrats believe anyone aside from Biden might be weaker against Trump.
The majority of the discontent appears to be coming within Biden’s own party, too. There was a 9-point decline among Democrats in between the 2 polls. To be clear, 75 percent of Democrats stated they approve of the job Biden is doing as president. Compare that with the previous month, however, when 84 percent of Democrats felt the very same.
Where Biden goes from here back up or stagnant might be important to determining whether he runs once again., however he’s still undersea general.
Is it fair to say that we’re all in agreement that there is not room for anybody else in the Democratic primary aside from Biden unless, of course, he does not run? OK, time to talk about the Republican side of things.
Ron De, Santis, previous Vice President Mike Pence, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, previous Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan all appear to be lining up to run. Of those, De, Santis is the only one who (currently) seems capable of beating Trump should the former president indeed run.
If you get a number of candidates splitting up the vote not going for Trump, it’s simply going to make it simpler for him to win.
You’re not challenging a sitting president, and there certainly appears to be at least some hesitancy over Trump and the concept that he has too much baggage and might not be able to win in a basic election again. A New York City Times/Siena College poll from last month discovered, for example, that practically half of Americans who planned to vote in the 2024 Republican primary would select a prospect besides Trump in a main race.
I’m delighted you brought up that poll, because I believed that was a fascinating method to frame the results, as one could also argue from that survey that Trump is still the undisputed leader. He was first, with 49 percent support, and De, Santis was in second, at 25 percent.
There is absolutely more space for a challenger to Trump than to Biden, however Trump would still be preferred. According to a current Politico/Morning Consult survey, 56 percent of Republican and independent registered citizens stated they would support Trump, while 18 percent stated they would support De, Santis, 8 percent said they would support Pence and a lot of other candidates all got 2 percent or less.
According to that You, Gov/Yahoo News poll I mentioned previously, Trump beats De, Santis 44 percent to 35 percent among registered citizens in a direct matchup. Definitely, but this point (from the Times reporting on the poll) was a fascinating comparison to me: “His share of the Republican primary electorate is less than Hillary Clinton’s among Democrats was at the start of the 2016 race.” Of course, Clinton eventually won that race, but it wasn’t an assurance Sanders gave her a genuine run for her money.
The Times might have also compared Trump to Gore’s position in 1999. That stated, De, Santis is clearly a genuine threat to Trump; a 9-point lead in the polls is not secure.
I know we had a chat back then about whether Trump’s grip on the GOP is still strong. At the time, I stated that Trump may be weaker than some want to admit, however after Tuesday night’s outcomes most significantly Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney’s primary loss paired with the fates of the nine other Republicans who voted to impeach the former president I actually believe it’ll be actually hard for another Republican to cut through his power.